World Cup 2026 Airbnb Prices Near Every Stadium

Eight weeks from kickoff, the World Cup 2026 Airbnb conversation is still being conducted in the wrong unit. Deloitte's $156M host-earnings study, Airbnb's 80%-YoY search surge, AirDNA's group-stage demand tracker — all of it is framed around city-market averages. But LA-metro has tens of thousands of listings, and only a few hundred sit inside the 2-mile ring around SoFi Stadium. Toronto has 15,000+ downtown listings; the BMO Field walking zone is a subset. MetLife has nine listings inside a 2-mile radius — you have to widen to three miles before you clear 40. City averages are not wrong; they are not what a fan actually books, and not what a host actually competes against.

So we stopped looking at city averages. This week, AirROI ran radius searches around all 16 host stadiums in the United States, Mexico, and Canada — 2 miles where supply permitted, 3 to 5 miles where it didn't — and pulled forward calendar data on a stratified sample inside each zone. Every number below is traceable to a specific ring around a specific set of stadium coordinates on April 16, 2026.

The scorecard is sharper than the city-level narrative suggests. Inside the 2-mile ring around AT&T Stadium in Arlington, the median listed rate for the 39 match nights is $3,387 against a $451 trailing-twelve-month baseline — a 7.5x lift. One Arlington listing is quoting up to $14,200 on peak nights and has already pre-blocked 89.7% of its calendar. In Monterrey, a single listing moved from $95 in May to $1,152 starting June 15 — a 12x single-listing shift — and the zone around Estadio BBVA is 81% pre-booked. Miami Gardens is 69% blocked already. And then, the tournament's richest paradox: MetLife hosts the final on July 19, and the median listed rate for that night is $1,018. One top 4BR is posted at just $889 — 1.04x its own baseline.

This is a zone-by-zone scorecard. We'll walk through the full 16-venue table, introduce a three-tier behavioral framework, and drop into the listing-level stories that make each zone distinctive.

Why the Stadium-Zone Is the Right Unit

The radius approach matters in both directions: zones that city averages over-count and zones they under-count.

Over-counting: SoFi Stadium sits in Inglewood, roughly 10 miles from the LA tourist corridor. A Los Angeles-metro average pulls in Venice Beach, West Hollywood, Santa Monica, downtown — none meaningfully closer to SoFi than to LAX. Our 2-mile radius returns just 301 listings. Inside that thinner ring, 4 of 13 sampled listings are 100% blocked for the entire 39-night window — a direct fingerprint of LA's Home-Sharing Ordinance 120-day cap. City averages hide that.

Under-counting: MetLife sits in East Rutherford, in a North Bergen commuter zone. A "New York–New Jersey market" aggregate folds in Manhattan — a completely different supply ecosystem five miles away across the Hudson. Our 2-mile radius returns only 9 listings. Widen to 3 miles for 46, but these are corporate-commuter units, not sports-tourism inventory. A city average makes NYC-NJ look like a deep, liquid host market for the final. The ring says otherwise.

The radius is the only honest answer to what does it cost to stay near the stadium? That's what fans search for, and what hosts actually compete on.

The 16-Stadium Scorecard

Every row below is sourced from AirROI's radius search at the stadium's coordinates on April 16, 2026. The multiplier is computed per listing — each listing's match-window median rate divided by its own trailing-twelve-month ADR — and then the zone median is taken. That per-listing methodology neutralizes sample-composition effects and measures how much any given host has raised their own pricing.

Rank	Stadium	City / Metro	Radius	Listings	Baseline ADR	Match-Window ADR	Multiplier	Blocked %
1	AT&T Stadium	Arlington (Dallas), US	2 mi	452	$451	$3,387	7.50x	11%
2	Estadio BBVA	Monterrey, MX	2 mi	211	$155	$805	5.19x	81%
3	Lumen Field	Seattle, US	2 mi	1,343	$465	$1,950	4.20x	23%
4	Gillette Stadium	Foxborough (Boston), US	5 mi*	38	$449	$1,799	4.00x	26%
5	MetLife Stadium	E. Rutherford (NY-NJ), US	3 mi*	46	$187	$708	3.80x	16%
6	BC Place	Vancouver, CA	2 mi	1,765	$577	$1,960	3.39x	22%
7	Estadio Azteca	Mexico City, MX	2 mi	338	$86	$272	3.16x	72%
8	Estadio Akron	Guadalajara, MX	2 mi	108	$82	$255	3.11x	58%
9	NRG Stadium	Houston, US	2 mi	694	$263	$709	2.70x	7%
10	Arrowhead Stadium	Kansas City, US	2 mi	31	$173	$430	2.50x	34%
11	Hard Rock Stadium	Miami Gardens, US	2 mi	185	$407	$810	1.99x	69%
12	Mercedes-Benz Stadium	Atlanta, US	2 mi	1,588	$1,040	$1,991	1.91x	5%
13	BMO Field	Toronto, CA	2 mi	3,132	$850	$1,620	1.91x	30%
14	SoFi Stadium	Inglewood (LA), US	2 mi	301	$305	$499	1.64x	21%
15	Lincoln Financial Field	Philadelphia, US	2 mi	175	$668	$1,000	1.50x	31%
16	Levi's Stadium	Santa Clara (SF Bay), US	2 mi	144	$326	$470	1.44x	28%

*Radius expanded where 2 miles was too sparse: Gillette to 5 mi (17 at 2 mi), MetLife to 3 mi (9 at 2 mi). Mexican and Canadian venues returned USD at query time. Blocked % is the median share of the 39-night match window already unavailable in a listing's public calendar.

The ranking is the artifact, but the spread is the story. Dallas (7.5x) clears more than five times the multiplier of Levi's (1.44x), and every one of these stadiums hosts at least four matches. The schedule does vary — AT&T leads with nine matches and a semi-final, MetLife hosts the final, BMO Field carries fewer — but the multiplier gap between zones is wider than schedule alone can account for. The story is in how different zones are absorbing the same demand shock. To make sense of it, we need a framework.

The Three-Tier Framework

Every stadium zone falls into one of three behavioral regimes, distinguished by two axes: how much hosts raised their asking prices (the multiplier) and how much of that asking has converted into actual bookings (the blocked %). Plot all sixteen on those two axes and three clean clusters appear.

Tier 1 — Meeting the Market

High multiplier, high blocked percentage. Hosts are asking premium rates and guests are paying them. Pricing is real — cleared by realized demand, not hung optimistically.

• Monterrey (BBVA): 5.19x, 81% blocked — the clearest demand shock of the tournament. Hosts front-ran the market starting June 1 and extracted the largest multiplier of any non-U.S. stadium.
• Mexico City (Azteca): 3.16x, 72% blocked — dense residential supply absorbing the opener spike at scale.
• Miami Gardens (Hard Rock): 1.99x, 69% blocked — modest multiplier, enormous realized demand. Top listings are 74-77% pre-booked. Miami has run Super Bowls, F1, and Copa finals; the zone knows how to clear.
• Guadalajara (Akron): 3.11x, 58% blocked — same regime as Mexico City, smaller supply pool.

Tier 1 shares three features: thinner supply, limited hotel alternatives, and — in the Mexican cases — a low enough baseline ADR that even sharply lifted prices feel affordable in absolute dollars.

Tier 2 — The Asking-vs-Bidding Gap

High multiplier, low blocked percentage. Hosts have posted aspirational premiums; bookings haven't followed. Whether those premiums hold or fall is the open question of the next eight weeks.

• Dallas (AT&T): 7.50x but only 11% blocked — the tournament's largest multiplier, hanging on a relatively small absolute-booking base. Top Arlington listings are pre-committed at premium prices; the median zone listing has plenty of match-window nights still open at $3,000+.
• Boston (Gillette): 4.00x but 26% blocked — extreme variance. One host asking 8x, others 1.5x. A thin, rural market trying to price-discover in a single cycle.
• Seattle (Lumen): 4.20x but 23% blocked — three 6-to-8-bedroom vacation homes posted at $1,950-$3,200/night anchor the multiplier; only 23% of those nights have cleared.
• Atlanta (Mercedes-Benz): 1.91x but 5% blocked — the most supply-diluted Tier 2 zone. 1,588 listings in 2 miles.
• Houston (NRG): 2.70x but 7% blocked — 694 listings plus Houston's enormous hotel base.
• Vancouver (BC Place): 3.39x but 22% blocked — a deep 1,765-listing pool; premium asks, but the clearing-rate hasn't caught up.

Tier 2 is where the coming weeks will matter most. Aspirational pricing isn't wrong if the demand arrives. But the gap between asked and booked tells hosts something important: you're not alone at your price point, and the ceiling may not be where you've set it.

Tier 3 — Leaving Money on the Table (or Capped by Structure)

Low multiplier — either because hosts haven't raised prices, or because something structural is capping how much they can. The two causes look identical in the data but call for very different responses.

• Levi's Stadium (1.44x) — the clearest case of hosts not pricing the event. The top Levi's earner holds a flat $534-$739 across the entire 39-night tournament with zero forward bookings. Bay Area hosts appear conditioned to corporate travel and are under-pricing event demand.
• Philadelphia (Lincoln Financial): 1.50x — compressed across the window average, but 31% already blocked. Bimodal pricing: one listing runs $679 in early June then jumps to $2,509 for June 23–July 6 (knockout round).
• SoFi (1.64x) — deeply understated. 31% of sampled LA listings are 100% blocked for the entire window — a fingerprint of HSR 120-day cap forcing hosts out. Forward-rate data can't surface a lift on a listing that disappeared.
• MetLife (3.8x) — the only Tier 3 zone whose multiplier looks high. Manhattan hotel substitution caps the ceiling; the final-date print itself is a tame $1,018. Full section below.
• Toronto (BMO Field): 1.91x — but Toronto's baseline is already $850, so a 1.91x translates to +$770 in absolute nightly uplift. The multiplier understates; the dollar story is elsewhere.
• Kansas City (Arrowhead): 2.5x, 31 listings — scarcity plus demand puts KC closer to Tier 1 behaviorally, but the sample is too thin to speak confidently.

A low multiplier is never self-explanatory. It can mean "capped" (MetLife), "constrained" (LA), "baseline already premium" (Toronto), or "hosts haven't noticed" (Levi's). Four diagnoses, four different responses.

The Arlington Advantage: Dallas at 7.5x

AT&T Stadium's 7.5x multiplier is the tournament's headline number, and three structural factors stack on top of one another to produce it.

First, the schedule. AT&T Stadium hosts a tournament-leading nine World Cup matches — five group-stage matches, two Round of 32, one Round of 16, and a semi-final on July 14, 2026. That's the heaviest fixture load of any of the 16 venues. Confirmed group-stage participants include Argentina, England, the Netherlands, Croatia, Japan, Austria, Jordan, and a European play-off winner — a roster heavy on globally-supported sides whose fans travel in volume. More matches and bigger traveling fanbases mean more demand-nights pointed at the same 2-mile ring.

Second, the host ecosystem. Arlington is an isolated suburban stadium complex. AT&T Stadium, Globe Life Field, and Six Flags Over Texas sit inside a purpose-built entertainment district with a mature short-term rental economy tuned to Cowboys games, Rangers games, Monster Jam, and college football. 452 listings operate inside the 2-mile ring, and many hosts have been pricing events for years.

Third, the lack of substitutes. There is no major hotel corridor inside that ring. The nearest cluster is 5-10 miles away. Fans who want to walk or short-ride to AT&T's gates choose among those 452 STR operators, who know exactly what pricing power they have.

A sample of what the Arlington ring looks like on April 16:

• One walk-to-stadium home is 89.7% of the match window already blocked at $5,325/night, with peaks up to $14,200.
• Another Arlington property is quoting a steady $4,381/night across 60+ tournament nights.
• A third is locked at $3,387/night across the entire window.
• A fourth runs $5,007.50 as its base, stepping up to $9,520 on early-July dates.
• A fifth quotes $3,332/night, steady through the tournament.

And the branding is overt: at least six of the top 50 Arlington listings include "FIFA" or "World Cup" in their titles. Arlington hosts are executing a playbook they've run before, on a property class fans specifically choose to walk to the gates.

The MetLife Final Paradox

MetLife will host the July 19, 2026 World Cup final — the single most-watched venue event of the year. Logic says this should be the tournament's most expensive night, anywhere, full stop. The data says otherwise.

Median listed rate for July 19 across our MetLife sample: $1,018.

That is not the tournament's peak. Dallas runs $3,430 on July 5, a random tournament Sunday. Atlanta clears $2,253 on the same date. Vancouver holds $1,949 for weeks. MetLife's final-night print is closer to a decent Friday in midtown than a once-in-a-generation sporting event.

The listing-level numbers make it sharper:

• One 4BR near MetLife is posted at $889 for July 19 against an $854 baseline. That's 1.04x — the host has essentially not raised the price for the World Cup final.
• A small 1BR in the sample is the most aggressive at $2,081.
• Another 1BR (titled "Black & Gold") sits at $1,600 with a 7-night minimum that few will accept.
• A 3BR is posted flat at $600 across the entire tournament.
• An "adorable" 3BR comes in at $336.

The mechanism is structural. Manhattan is roughly five miles from MetLife via NJ Transit or the Lincoln Tunnel, and Manhattan has more hotel rooms than any U.S. city except Las Vegas. That supply base functionally caps how much short-term rentals near the stadium can charge. A fan can stay Midtown for $400-$800, cab to Penn Station, ride NJ Transit one stop to Secaucus, and catch a stadium shuttle. Guests know it, MetLife hosts know guests know it — hence $889 for the final.

A second layer: only 9 listings exist within 2 miles of MetLife. The 3-mile widening pulls in 46, but these are North Bergen corporate-commuter apartments — several still require 31-night minimums during the World Cup, opting out of tournament revenue entirely. The MetLife 3-mile ring isn't really a stadium zone; it's a corporate-rental cluster near a stadium.

The structural cap is a genuine insight. "Host the final, earn the most" is the natural assumption; the radius data says otherwise. MetLife is not the crown jewel of the tournament. It's the lodging paradox.

Monterrey Goes 12x — On the Same Listing

If MetLife is the paradox, Monterrey is the shock. Across 211 listings inside 2 miles of Estadio BBVA, the median multiplier is 5.19x and the median blocked percentage is 81%. That combination — aggressive pricing and realized clearing — doesn't exist outside the Miami-Mexico City cluster.

The listing-level version:

• One Monterrey unit was priced at $95/night in May 2026.
• Starting June 15, the same unit is posted at $1,152/night. A 12.1x shift on a single listing in five weeks.

Monterrey hosts appear to have front-run the tournament by roughly a week. Surge pricing in the BBVA zone started around June 1 — ten days earlier than Toronto (June 10), Mexico City (June 9), or Guadalajara (June 6). One possible mechanism is geography: Monterrey is the first Mexican host city reached by visiting supporters from the U.S. Midwest tracing a Houston-Monterrey-Mexico City itinerary. Whatever the cause, the zone's pricing discipline is unmistakable: steep asks, actual bookings.

A tail-risk pattern worth flagging honestly: two BBVA-zone listings are posted at $5,915-$5,929/night — roughly 168x baseline. Almost certainly host errors or aspirational lottery-ticket pricing; we excluded them from the median. But they illustrate what you get at the extreme end of a price-discovery cycle: a few hosts who think the tournament justifies any number. The 5.19x median reflects how the zone actually cleared.

The LA Squeeze: Regulation Caps the Zone

SoFi's 1.64x multiplier is the Tier 3 story where the framework gets interesting. Los Angeles' Home-Sharing Ordinance caps non-primary-residence short-term rentals at 120 days per calendar year — and the SoFi zone shows what that looks like when a 40-day event lands inside a mature STR economy.

4 of 13 sampled LA listings are 100% blocked for the entire 39-night match window. That's 31% of the sample gone from forward-rate data — booked solid at negotiated rates, shifted to 30+-day bookings to escape the HSR counter, or pulled off Airbnb for the duration. When listings disappear from the active market, they stop contributing to the visible "lift" signal. The multiplier on what remains is mechanically understated.

The listings still in-market show sharp ceiling-testing:

• One LA listing prices $3,250 on June 11 (opener-adjacent) and $4,500 on June 12.
• Another reaches $4,000 on July 2.
• A 6BR/16-guest "Dreamscape"-style home runs a $1,419 median match-window ADR with individual nights up to $2,116 on June 26.

The HSR cap is one of the few regulatory interventions in the tournament with a visible fingerprint in pacing data. A subset of LA operators cannot legally offer the full 39-night stay — they disappear from supply, which preserves hotel pricing power. Inside the active pool, the lift is there; the aggregate just can't see it.

Miami: The Demand That Already Showed Up

Hard Rock Stadium's zone posts a 1.99x multiplier — well below Dallas, Monterrey, or Seattle — yet 69% of the match window is already blocked. Miami is the Tier 1 case where a modest multiplier clears at 70%+ rates because hosts price with discipline.

From the 185-listing Miami Gardens pool:

• The two top-revenue Hard Rock listings in the sample are 74-77% pre-booked eight weeks out.
• A 2BR has rebranded itself "Concert & Game Haven Near Hard Rock Stadium" for the tournament.
• Baseline is already $407 — well above Azteca or Akron — so 1.99x lands at $810/night, genuine premium territory.

Miami's host ecosystem is unusually mature for event pricing. The city hosts a Super Bowl every few years, the Miami Grand Prix, a tennis Open, multiple Copa finals, and year-round cruise traffic. Operators around Hard Rock have internalized event-pricing discipline for more than a decade. They don't post 8x prices; they post defensible 2x prices that clear. The result is one of the highest realized-revenue densities in the tournament.

Cross-Border Divergence: Multiplier vs. Absolute Dollars

The Mexican and Canadian zones best demonstrate why multiplier-only rankings mislead:

Stadium	Baseline ADR	Match ADR	Multiplier	Absolute $ Uplift
Toronto (BMO Field)	$850	$1,620	1.91x	+$770
Monterrey (BBVA)	$155	$805	5.19x	+$650
Mexico City (Azteca)	$86	$272	3.16x	+$186
Guadalajara (Akron)	$82	$255	3.11x	+$173

Toronto's 1.91x looks unimpressive next to Monterrey's 5.19x. But in absolute dollars, Toronto hosts extract nearly the same nightly lift — $770 versus $650 — off a baseline more than 5x higher. A 20-night Toronto stay inside the BMO Field ring is a ~$32,400 booking at the match-window median; the same 20 nights near BBVA is ~$16,100. Toronto wins in dollars; Monterrey wins in multiplier.

Framing matters for who the data is for. A Toronto host asks how much can I push above my already-premium $850 baseline? — +$770 is enormous on top of a base that already carried. A Monterrey host asks how much can I capture versus my $155 baseline? — the answer is more absolute dollars than Azteca or Guadalajara peers, because Monterrey's demand shock is sharper.

One caveat: Toronto's pricing also reflects a thicker supply pool. BMO Field's 2-mile ring contains 3,132 listings — 29x Guadalajara's 108-listing pool, and the largest of any of the 16 stadium zones. Deep supply means even strong event demand struggles to drive a high multiplier. A listing-level anecdote still makes the dollar story concrete: a 4BR townhouse in Little Italy jumps to $2,668 on June 26 against a $428 baseline — 6.2x. The zone median is 1.91x, but the distribution has a long right tail.

The Opener at Azteca

The tournament opens on June 11 at Estadio Azteca. Opener night concentrates Mexico City's STR demand into a single globally-watched date the way MetLife's final concentrates it at the other end.

Inside the Azteca 2-mile ring on April 16:

• Median opener-night (June 11) rate: $288 versus $134 on May 15. That's a 2.15x lift.
• 80% of sampled listings show the opener blocked or booked in public calendars.
• But the remaining 20% are still priced at or near baseline. A 5BR house in Coapa (top-revenue in its tier) is posted at $87. A nearby 3BR condo sits at $171. An Azteca-branded 5BR asks $238.

The distribution is bimodal. The top-revenue Azteca house in our sample — a 6BR home in Tlalpan — is priced at $527.80 for the opener, 2.06x its $256 baseline. A passive neighbor a few blocks away is priced at $87. In the most dramatic cross-listing comparison we found, a Guadalajara apartment marketed as a "World Stadium" stay asks $947 for the opener — 6.87x its $138 baseline. Passive and aspirational hosts live in the same zone, selling the same proximity, at prices that differ by 10x.

The bimodal pattern repeats in Philadelphia. A 4BR near Lincoln Financial Field runs $679 in early June, then jumps to $2,509 for June 23–July 6 — the knockout round. One host, two completely different prices in the same tournament depending on which dates they think demand will arrive. Some of these hosts are wrong. The next eight weeks will tell us which.

Thin-Supply Zones: Kansas City, Boston, MetLife

Three venues show how thin supply reshapes pricing in three different directions.

Kansas City (Arrowhead): 31 listings at 2 miles. The entire ring has fewer Airbnbs than the average Atlanta neighborhood. Scarcity meets pricing power: one walk-to-stadium home in the sample is 51% pre-blocked at $1,200/night. Walk-to-stadium homes command 6-9x baseline. The 2.5x zone median understates what the best-positioned KC listings are clearing.

Boston (Gillette): 17 listings at 2 miles, 38 at 5 miles. Foxborough is an extreme Arlington. Almost every 2-mile listing is "walk to Gillette" branded. One 3BR three miles from the stadium jumps from a $225 baseline to $1,799 during the tournament — 8x — and drops to $275 the day after its last game. Another listing is titled "5 min from WORLD CUP, Gillette Stadium!" Thin supply + walkability = textbook pricing power.

MetLife: 9 listings at 2 miles. Same structural feature (suburban isolation), completely different outcome — the substitute supply (Manhattan hotels) is five miles away. Thin supply enables pricing power that can still be capped by outside inventory.

The general rule: thin supply + no nearby hotel substitutes = the tournament's highest multipliers (Arlington, Foxborough, KC). Thin supply + nearby hotel substitutes = a capped multiplier (MetLife).

The Atlanta Moonshot

No discussion of aspirational pricing is complete without the most audacious listing in our sample.

An "Entire Top Floor Penthouse Loft" inside the 2-mile Atlanta ring is asking $59,170 per night across all 39 tournament nights. Against its $1,420 baseline, that's a 41.7x markup. One of those 39 nights has been booked so far.

Whether it books out is beside the point. It represents the upper tail of a pricing cycle running across every zone: some operators are testing whether any price is defensible for "the World Cup." Atlanta's 2-mile ring also contains a different 2BR home blocked across April-November except the World Cup window — where it's held flat at $400.40/night. The operator has stopped accepting non-WC business entirely. Different strategies, same pool: one host betting on a moonshot, another on pure tournament demand. Both bets coexist inside the same 1,588-listing Atlanta ring, which is why the zone's multiplier sits at 1.91x with an anomalously low 5% blocked share. A handful are aggressive; most are still pricing for a normal Atlanta summer.

Where Late Hosts Can Still Capture

For hosts still listing inventory, the pacing data points to three opportunity sets:

1. Santa Clara (Levi's). Bay Area hosts are the clearest case of under-pricing. Zone multiplier 1.44x, top earner flat-priced with zero bookings, and Levi's hosts actual matches. Any Bay Area host entering now with even 2-2.5x pricing captures the same structural premium the rest of the tournament is already claiming.
2. Passive Mexican listings near Azteca. Multiple top-revenue listings are still posted at $87-$171 for opener night while peers price at $500+. A manual reprice on 5-10 opener-adjacent dates recaptures significant revenue at near-zero effort.
3. MetLife region, with realistic expectations. A MetLife-adjacent host who prices the final realistically — $1,000-$1,500 for July 19, $500-$800 for semi-finals — will clear. A host pricing for the fantasy final ($3,000+) will not. Manhattan substitution cuts both ways.

For anyone reading from the host side, the actionable question is not "what's the tournament premium?" — it's "which tier does my zone behave like?" Tier 1 hosts need modest pricing discipline. Tier 2 hosts need to watch clearing rates and adjust down if May bookings don't arrive. Tier 3 needs a diagnosis before action: Levi's and Lincoln Financial should raise prices, SoFi should ensure legal listings, MetLife should price to clear, and Toronto should recognize its absolute-dollar uplift is already substantial even at 1.91x.

Methodology and Caveats

In the interest of honest disclosure:

• Radius search is stadium-proximity, not city-wide. 2-mile radius where supply permitted; 3 miles for MetLife, 5 miles for Gillette. Cross-zone comparisons are directional.
• Sample sizes vary (3-15 per stadium). Per-listing multipliers (each listing vs. its own baseline) are robust. Absolute cross-stadium dollar comparisons should be read directionally.
• Baselines are trailing-twelve-month medians, not last-summer — deliberate. A same-summer comparison would confound World Cup premium with normal seasonality.
• Blocked % is a proxy for pre-booking. "Unavailable" could be booked, host-blocked, or converted to a 30-day rental. In zones with regulatory pressure (LA, Vancouver), some "blocked" is regulatory adaptation.
• Match-window median is median-of-medians. For each listing we take the median across the 39-night window; the zone median is the median of those listing-level medians.
• Currency conversions done at the AirROI query layer. Mexican and Canadian listings returned USD directly.
• Snapshot: April 16, 2026. Forward pacing continues to change, especially Tier 2.
• Ghost filter: ttm_days_booked ≥ 30 excluded inactive and test listings.

None of these caveats change the shape of the tiered framework. They do mean any single stadium's multiplier should be read with ±15-25% error bars — especially for thin-supply venues (MetLife, Gillette, Arrowhead).

What the Ring Tells Us

The city-wide narrative is that World Cup 2026 lifts every host city roughly equivalently — Deloitte projects $156M across the 11 U.S. cities, averaging about $4,000 per host. That number isn't wrong. It just averages over zones doing completely different things.

Inside the 2-mile ring around Arlington, a handful of operators are pricing tournament nights at $5,325-$14,200 with 90% of their calendar already gone. Inside the 2-mile ring around Levi's, the top earner is holding flat $534-$739 with zero forward bookings. Inside the 2-mile ring around Estadio BBVA, 81% of inventory has already cleared at 5x baseline. Inside the 2-mile ring around MetLife, a top 4BR is asking 1.04x for the World Cup final because Manhattan hotels cap the ceiling. These are not minor deviations from a shared trend. They are four distinct market regimes operating simultaneously inside the same tournament.

The takeaway for hosts: the tournament is not one-size-fits-all. For fans: "near the stadium" means something very different in Arlington than it does in East Rutherford or Santa Clara. And for anyone trying to understand the 2026 World Cup's short-term rental economy: none of this is visible from a metro-level average. You need the ring.

Eight weeks out, the ring is where the story actually lives.